Wednesday, February 02, 2005 

2/2/2005 4:04:18 AM -- St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Inflation gets grip on St. Louis area
St. Louis Post-Dispatch via NewsEdge Corporation : Feb. 1--The gas pump wasn't the only place St. Louisans faced higher prices last year. They also shelled out more for food, housing and clothes, as consumer prices here rose at their fastest rate in more than a decade, according to U.S. Labor Department figures.
Inflation made a comeback nationwide in 2004 after a several-year hiatus. And the St. Louis area saw consumer price increases that beat the U.S. average.
Still, economists yawned Monday when asked to measure this modest inflation by historical standards. By comparison, prices grew more than twice as fast each year in the late 1970s, they noted.
The big problem (in 2004) is that we have gasoline and medical care prices that grew much more than average, said Bryan Bezold, an economist with the St. Louis Regional Chamber & Growth Association. St. Louis may be a little bit higher than the U.S., but that isn't too crazy since there's evidence that (our economy) grew more than the nation.
These latest numbers are from the consumer price index, or CPI, which measures the cost of a fixed basket of goods over time. The basket includes items ranging from housing to education to health care.
Prices rose 4 percent in the region between 2003 and 2004, according to the CPI for all urban consumers. That's the largest such increase since 1990, when the CPI for St. Louis shot up 5.2 percent.
The national CPI, meanwhile, increased 2.7 percent in 2004, based on annual averages.
For these price increases, consumers can thank an improving economy that's fattened some workers' wallets while putting others back in jobs over the last year. As the economy grew, demand for goods rose and companies became less hesitant to raise prices, economists said.
Locally, the biggest price hikes came at an obvious place: the gas pump. Gasoline prices rose 19.1 percent in 2004.
Kenneth Matheny, a senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisors LLC in Clayton, said the inflation of 2004 follows a three-year period during which consumer price increases were minuscule, rivaling even the historic lows of the 1960s.
In the years leading up to 2004, The economy was weak and sluggish, and unemployment was above normal levels. Companies held the line on prices, Matheny said. Now, firms have more pricing power.
In the case of rising apparel prices, Bezold, the RCGA economist, said there's evidence that consumers with more income have been shopping at higher-end stores.
Housing prices have risen as low mortgage rates fueled a housing boom that's seen ownership climb higher each year, he said.
The budding inflation last year caught the attention of the Federal Reserve Bank. Anticipating rising prices, the Fed began to hike interest rates to fight inflation and is expected to do so again this week.
Consumers with short memories may gasp at the rise in gas prices last year. In 2000, however, gas prices shot up 31.8 percent in the St. Louis area, according to the CPI.
Consumers also should remember that inflation is not bad for all people, said Joseph Haslag, an economist at the University of Missouri at Columbia. He cited housing prices, which grew at about twice the national average in the St. Louis area in 2004, according to the CPI.
If I own my own house, that's a good thing, Haslag said.
CPI INCREASES
The consumer price index for the St. Louis area rose 4 percent in 2004. Below are the changes for selected items:
Gasoline -- 19.1 percent
Housing -- 5 percent
Apparel -- 4.8 percent
Food -- 3.8 percent
Alcoholic beverages -- 0.8 percent
Household furnishings -- -0.4 percent
Electricity -- -1.5 percent
To see more of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.stltoday.com.

Monday, July 11, 2005 

Feds no longer dismiss talk of housing bubble - America's Housing Craze - MSNBC.com: "A cover story in the Economist magazine this month calls the global rise in housing prices 'the biggest bubble in history' and warns of economic pain to follow. Declining prices in formerly red-hot markets of Britain and Australia offer a cautionary tale for what could happen in the United States, the magazine's editors argue."

Friday, May 27, 2005 

Running Out of Bubbles - New York Times: "Some analysts still insist that housing prices aren't out of line. But someone will always come up with reasons why seemingly absurd asset prices make sense. Remember 'Dow 36,000'? Robert Shiller, who argued against such rationalizations and correctly called the stock bubble in his book 'Irrational Exuberance,' has added an ominous analysis of the housing market to the new edition, and says the housing bubble 'may be the biggest bubble in U.S. history'"

Sunday, November 23, 2008 

Just one more.  Put it on my tab.  

What an extraordinary year.  Oddly I saw the housing crash on the horizon as far back as 2004 or so when talking with friends but I never could have imagined where it would take us.  And it seems the ride is not over yet.  I guess the fat cats on the cover of Fortune just a few months ago crowing about Citi are perhaps more reserved today as I type this.  

It is funny to me how we argue and debate about the words we use to define what is happening to us in these most amazing times.  Recession.  Depression.  Tomato.  Toomato.  Let me throw one out there for folks to consider: a reckoning.  It is as simple as that.  It is our day of reckoning and are we responding appropriately?  I will throw my guess out there: no.  

Granted that I am more apt to throw out historical parallels in these wild times than perhaps most but I will offer to you what you no doubt may have guessed if you read this blog very much: our earth is telling us something in so many ways.  We need to listen.  

At the core of it to me our earth really is saying that we are too many and we are asking for too much.  Slow down.  Now, granted, I am not sure how I would put this information in my innagural address and package it for the American people and the world to truly understand but there are unmistakable signs out there that we keep trying to cover up for ourselves by using short, punchy words like 'recession'.  

This is more than that of course.  It has no absolute label and no one, including this writer, has any idea where it is going or how it going to end up but briefly we should explore how we got here:

Technology stocks bit the dust right around the turn of the millineum.  9/11 happened.  We as a nation frankly should have had quite a downturn under any other circumstances simply because, well, the capitalist system is like that for one and two, much wealth and confidence had evaporated.  But instead of visiting the shallow end of the pool on that one and taking our medicine we took actions to paper over this crisis.  Literally.  So much money and paper was pumped into the system from all sorts of streams that we made the dip as short and painless as possible.  

But there is no free lunch and now we are paying for this extremely loose money policy.  It is not just housing - that is where I had it wrong.  That, oddly, is just a symptom.  

Because again, now, we are seeing this same response: paper over our failures.  Rescue another one.  Give them cash or at least a guarentee or, hell, I don't know but THEY ARE TOO BIG TO FAIL.  

Let us please break out of this and realize that for the good of our children and the good of our society and our country and our way of life: we need to take a long look in the mirror and get off the various addictions we have been holding so dear.  The time is right. 

Friday, July 10, 2009 

World has avoided economic disaster, Obama says - Yahoo! News

World has avoided economic disaster, Obama says - Yahoo! News: "'Reckless actions by a few have fueled a recession that spans the globe,' Obama said of the meltdown that began in the United States with a tumble in housing prices and drastic slowing of business lending. The downturn now threatens superpowers and emerging nations alike.

Obama urged national leaders to unite behind a global recovery plan that includes stricter financial regulation and sustained stimulus spending."

Any, you know, justice for the 'reckless few' big guy? Let's get some folks behind bars my man.

Wednesday, September 14, 2005 

The Other America - Newsweek Hurricane Katrina Coverage - MSNBC.com: "'I hope we realize that the people of New Orleans weren't just abandoned during the hurricane,' Sen. Barack Obama said last week on the floor of the Senate. 'They were abandoned long ago - to murder and mayhem in the streets, to substandard schools, to dilapidated housing, to inadequate health care, to a pervasive sense of hopelessness.'"

Tried to post this earlier - it is a great read - but blogger was being a tempermental bitch. I love ya though blogger ;)

Tuesday, May 24, 2005 

Existing home sales surged in April - Stocks & Economy - MSNBC.com: "That represented the biggest 12-month gain in home sales prices since November 1980 and was certain to add to concerns that the housing industry could be experiencing a speculative bubble similar to the stock market bubble which popped in the spring of 2000."

Monday, May 09, 2005 

An email to my very republican uncle:

It would be nice. I was brought up in the methodist church, though did go to a Lutheran school for quite a while. The bible was one of my first hard reads... one of these days I will get to the Torah.

Thank you for the recommendations. What is your underlying message by recommending these books? America's great tide has floated all ships? I cannot help but think back to my own history classes about wartime (WWII in particular) and my realization for the first time that great things do come out of war such as penicillian (though a bit of an accident) and man-made rubber (how integral it is to war was also a shocker) among other things (nuclear power). I think about how great our world is now that people do not have to deal with bacterial infection as they might have used to (and according to one professor, do have to deal with asthma due to the 'dust' from man-made rubber - his own random hypothesis that he was working to test).

I truly hope that as a world wide community, with America leading of course, we could put this same sort of war-like effort towards solving our environmental problems. I hate that Japan is ready to boast the number one car companies in the world as we fucking sit on our hands. GM and Ford have been downgraded to junk bond status!? Did you think you would see this in your lifetime? I fondly remember Dad being very proud of purchasing only US made cars until the Turbo Dodge Lancer wasn't Turbo anymore. It makes me sick that the smart decision these days is to look outside of America for car/transportation manufacturing prowess.

It makes me sick as well that we have not led the way in the internal development of humans (we have a lot of work to do!) and the truly smart development of our natural environment. These are areas where I expect us as Americans to not only excell at, but be the very fucking best at. I remain hopeful.

On other subjects here is some things I have found interesting as of late:

http://www.wnyc.org/stream/ram.py?file=/lopate/lopate050205d.ra

A fascinating interview with Dr. Tadatoshi Akiba, mayor of Hiroshima and president of Mayors for Peace. Dr. Akiba is in New York for the UN conference on the Nuclear Nonproliferation treaty, and he took the time for some eloquent straight talk about the nuclear weapons and international politics. (First link is to a real audio file.)

http://cunningrealist.blogspot.com/

A lifelong Conservative with a strong independent streak, I am a late-30's resident of New York City and an executive in the financial industry. I have a BA from a top-ten school and an MBA from Columbia University.

He writes some very interesting things. His recent writings about the Fed have really piqued my interest. The 'housing bubble' is something I wonder about intensely (though I have thought it was bound for a correction 2 years ago - shows what I know).

Tuesday, May 03, 2005 

Red-hot housing markets stir fears of busts - Stocks & Economy - MSNBC.com: "But their updated study, released Monday, also notes special qualities of the current boom, including the large number of boom markets across the country and a risky credit environment."

Friday, April 29, 2005 

Morgan Stanley: "And should asset-dependent, saving-short, overly indebted American consumers feel at risk if the Fed assures them that there is no housing bubble -- that the asset-based underpinnings of their decision making are well grounded? A record consumption share in the US economy -- 71% of GDP since 2002 versus a 67% norm over the 1975 to 2000 period -- speaks for itself."

Sunday, March 13, 2005 

MSNBC - Bottom Dollar: "But beyond all the upbeat indicators lurks a potentially frightening problem that unsettles even the wisest and most seasoned economic observers. It's not government budget deficits, a possible housing bubble or even $2-a-gallon gasoline. It's the dollar."

Monday, February 28, 2005 

New home sales slump 9.2 percent; miss analysts estimates. - Feb. 28, 2005: "NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - New home sales tumbled 9.2 percent in January, the government reported Monday, coming in below Wall Street forecasts and raising worries about rising interest rates and the nation's housing market. "

Archives

Links

Powered by Blogger
and Blogger Templates